Fecha/hora: 03/06/2024 09:47:49

Biblioteca(s): 	INIA Las Brujas.	
Tipo de la producción científica: 	Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales	
Circulación/Nivel: 	Internacional - --	
Fecha corriente: 	05/11/2021	
Fecha de la última actualización: 	05/11/2021	
Autoria: 	AGUIAR, S.; MASTRÁNGELO, M.E.; TEXEIRA, M.; MEYFROIDT, P.; VOLANTE, J.N.; PARUELO, J.	
Afiliación: 	SEBASTIÁN AGUIAR, IFEVA, Facultad de Agronomía, CONICET, Bs. As., Argentina; Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Bs. As., Argentina; MATÍAS E. MASTRÁNGELO, Grupo de Estudio de Agroecosistemas y Paisajes Rurales (GEAP), National University of Mar del Plata, CONICET, Balcarce, Argentina; MARCOS TEXEIRA, IFEVA, Facultad de Agronomía, CONICET, Bs. As., Argentina; Dpto. de Métodos Cuantitativos y Sistemas de Información, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Bs. As., Argentina; PATRICK MEYFROIDT, Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique, F.R.S. – FNRS, Brussels, Belgium; Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Belgium; JOSÉ N. VOLANTE, Laboratorio de Teledetección y SIG, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Salta, Salta, Argentina; JOSÉ PARUELO, IFEVA, Facultad de Agronomía, CONICET, Bs. As; Dpto. de Métodos Cuantitativos y Sistemas de Información, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Bs. As., Argentina; INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay.	
Título: 	Roads and land tenure mediate the effects of precipitation on forest cover change in the Argentine Dry Chaco.	
Año de publicación: 	2021	
Fuente/Imprenta: 	Land Use Policy, 2022, Volume 112, Article number 105806. Bronze Open Access. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105806	
ISSN: 	0264-8377	
DOI: 	10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105806	
Idioma: 	Inglés	
Notas: 	Article history: Received 20 May 2020; Revised 12 May 2021; Accepted 2 October 2021; Available online 24 October 2021.
Funding information: This work was carried out with the aid of grants from ANPCyT and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) CRN3095 (Bridging Ecosystem Services and Territorial Planning (BEST-P)): A southern South American initiative, which is supported by the US National Science Foundation (Grant GEO-1128040 ). CONICET and UBA also provided funding through undergraduate and graduate scholarships to S.A.
* Corresponding author. Sebastián Aguiar, E-mail address: aguiarse@agro.uba.ar (S. Aguiar).	
Contenido: 	ABSTRACT.- Dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems globally, due to agricultural expansion driven by the increasing demand for food, fibers, and energy in developed and emerging countries. Among these, the forests of the South American Gran Chaco are one of the global deforestation hotspots. The Argentine Dry Chaco has been the focus of several studies that assess the factors that drive forest conversion. However, these studies do not describe the causal relationships among these drivers and seldom use existing theory to select drivers. Here we employ a theory-driven approach to test the relative merits of alternative and complementary hypotheses to explain the drivers and mechanisms explaining the unequal spatial distribution of forest loss and maintenance in the Argentine Dry Chaco from 2000 to 2010. Using structural equation modeling, we quantified the direct and indirect effects of multiple drivers and compared the explanatory power and parsimony of these alternative hypotheses, i.e. the biophysical, infrastructure, socio-demographic, institutional, and the integration of them. For both forest loss and maintenance, the model containing infrastructural drivers had the best balance between parsimony and explanatory power. Integrated models, comprising a combination of drivers, had the highest explanatory power (R2 = 0.81 for forest maintenance, and R2 = 0.58 for forest loss). We show that biophysical constraints operate directly and indirectly: soil suitability had direct effects on forest cover maintenance, while precipitation affected it both directly and indirectly through influencing the institutional (land tenure) and infrastructure (road density). Indigenous communities positively affected forest maintenance both directly and indirectly mediated by non-private land tenure. Our results suggest that disentangling the structure of the relationships among drivers could increase our capacity for understanding and steering land-use change. Furthermore, policies for halting deforestation might increase their effectiveness by accounting for the mechanisms that underlie forest loss and maintenance. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd	
Palabras-Clave: 	Argentina; Deforestation; Gran Chaco; Land cover change; Land-use change; Structural equation modeling; Subtropical dry forests.	
Categoría del tema: 	P01 Conservación de la naturaleza y recursos de La tierra	
URL: 	https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837721005299/pdfft?md5=6c909b5f4be8e3f10b9975b6e7a89064&pid=1-s2.0-S0264837721005299-main.pdf	
Registro original: 	INIA Las Brujas (LB)	
Ejemplares: 	LB - (102835-1) - PXI - AP - DD - PP/Land Use Policy/2022 -  -  - DIS